What are the predictions for 2023 - watch this short video - https://youtu.be/IkrTKA3auEs
Last year, one factor drove the real estate market more than any other: rising mortgage rates.
In March 2022, the Federal Reserve began a series of interest rate hikes in an effort to pump the brakes on inflation.1 And while some market sectors have been slow to respond, the housing market has reacted accordingly.
Both demand and price appreciation have tapered, as the primary challenge for homebuyers has shifted from availability to affordability. And although this higher-mortgage rate environment has been a painful adjustment for many buyers and sellers, it should ultimately lead to a more stable and balanced real estate market.
So what can we expect in 2023? Will mortgage rates continue to climb? Could home prices come crashing down? While this is one of the more challenging real estate periods to forecast, here’s what several industry experts predict will happen to the U.S. housing market in the coming year.
MORTGAGE RATES WILL FLUCTUATE LESS
In 2022, 30-year fixed mortgage rates surged from roughly 3% in January to around 7%. According to Rick Sharga of real estate data company ATTOM, “We’ve never seen rates double in so short a period.”2
This year, economists forecast a less dramatic shift.
In an interview with Bankrate, Nadia Evangelou, senior economist for the National Association of Realtors, shares her vision of three possible mortgage rate scenarios:3
Realtor.com forecasts something similar to scenario #2 above: “Mortgage rates will average 7.4% in 2023, trickling down to 7.1% by year’s end.”4 The Mortgage Bankers Association, however, projects something closer to Evangelou’s scenario #3, with the 30-year fixed rate declining steadily throughout the year, averaging 6.2% in Q1 and 5.2% by Q4.5
Economists at Fannie Mae fall somewhere in the middle. In a recent press release, they predicted that the U.S. economy will experience a “modest recession” this year.6 But in their December Housing Forecast, they project that 30-year fixed mortgage rates will only fall by half a point from an average of 6.5% in Q1 to 6.0% in Q4.7
“From our perspective, the good news is that demographics remain favorable for housing, so the sector appears well-positioned to help lead the economy out of what we expect will be a brief recession,” said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan.6
What does it mean for you? Even the experts can’t say for certain where mortgage rates are headed. Instead of trying to ”time the market,” focus instead on buying or selling a home when the time is right for you. There are a variety of mortgage options available that can make a home purchase more affordable, including adjustable rates, points, and buydowns—and keep in mind you can always refinance down the road. We’d be happy to refer you to a trusted mortgage professional who can outline your best options.
SALES VOLUME WILL FALL AND INVENTORY WILL RISE
It looks like the home-buying frenzy we experienced in recent years is behind us. While the desire to own a home remains strong, higher mortgage rates have made it unaffordable for a large segment of would-be buyers.
Many economists expect the number of home sales to continue to decline this year, leading to an increase in listing inventory and days-on-market, or the time it takes to sell a home. But, there is a wide range when it comes to specifics.
Economists at Fannie Mae forecast that total home sales will fall by around 20% this year before rising again by nearly 15% in 2024.7 National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projects a less extreme dip of 7% in 2023 with a rebound of 10% next year.8
Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale foresees something in between. “The deceleration in home sales is likely to continue as high home prices and mortgage rates limit the pool of eligible home buyers. We anticipate that existing home sales will decline another 14.1% in 2023.” She expects this drop in sales to lead to a nearly 23% increase in inventory levels this year, offering more choices for buyers who have struggled to find a home in the past.9
However, given the severe lack of housing supply, even with a double-digit increase, the market is expected to remain relatively tight and below pre-pandemic levels. Hale points out: “It’s important to keep historical context in mind. The level of inventory in 2023 is expected to fall roughly 15% short of the 2019 average.”9
What does it mean for you? If you’ve been frustrated by a lack of inventory in the past, 2023 may bring new opportunities for you to find the perfect home. And today’s buyers have more negotiating power than they’ve had in years. Contact us to find out about current and future listings that meet your criteria.
If you’re hoping to sell, you may want to act fast; rising inventory levels will mean increased competition. We can help you chart the best course to maximize your profits, starting with a professional assessment of your home’s current market value. Reach out to schedule a free consultation.
HOME PRICES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE
While some economists expect home prices to fall this year, many expect them to remain fairly stable. “For most parts of the country, home prices are holding steady since available inventory is extremely low,” said Yun at a November conference.8
Nationally, Yun expects the average median home price to tick up by 1% in 2023, with some markets experiencing greater appreciation and others experiencing declines.8 Economists at Fannie Mae offer a similar projection, forecasting a slight decrease in their Home Price Index of about 1.5%, year-over-year.7
Other experts foresee a larger fluctuation. Hale expects U.S. home prices to rise by 5.4% this year, while Morgan Stanley is forecasting a 7% drop from the peak in June 2022.9,10
Still, many economists agree that a housing market crash like the one we experienced in 2008 is highly unlikely. The factors that caused home prices to plunge during the Great Recession—specifically lax lending standards and a surplus of inventory—aren’t prevalent in our current market.10 Therefore, home values are expected to remain comparatively stable.
What does it mean for you? It can feel scary to buy a home when there’s uncertainty in the market. However, real estate is a long-term investment that has been shown to appreciate over time. And keep in mind that the best bargains are often found in a slower market, like the one we’re experiencing right now. Contact us to discuss your goals and budget. We can help you make an informed decision about the right time to buy.
And if you’re planning to sell this year, you’ll want to chart your path carefully to maximize your profits. Contact us for recommendations and to find out what your home could sell for in today’s market.
RENT PRICES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB
Affordability challenges for would-be buyers, inflationary pressures, and an overall lack of housing could continue to drive “above-average” rent price increases in much of the country.11 The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas expects year-over-year rental price growth to tick up to 8.4% in May before moderating later in the year.12
According to Hale, “U.S. renters will continue to face challenges from limited supply and excess demand in the coming year that will keep upward pressure on rent growth. At a national level, we forecast rent growth of 6.3% in the next 12 months, somewhat ahead of home price growth and historical rent trends.”9
However, there are signs that the surge in rent prices could be tapering. According to Jay Parsons, head of economics for rental housing software company RealPage, there’s some evidence of a slowdown in demand. He predicts that market-rate rents will rise just 3.3% this year. Still, analysts agree that a return to lower pre-pandemic rental prices is unlikely.10
What does it mean for you? Rent prices are expected to keep climbing. But you can lock in a set mortgage payment and build long-term wealth by putting that money toward a home purchase instead. Reach out for a free consultation to discuss your options.
And if you’ve ever thought about purchasing a rental property, now may be a perfect time. Call today to get your investment property search started.
WE’RE HERE TO GUIDE YOU
While national real estate forecasts can provide a “big picture” outlook, real estate is local. And as local market experts, we can guide you through the ins and outs of our market and the issues most likely to impact sales and drive home values in your particular neighborhood.
If you’re considering buying or selling a home in 2023, contact us now to schedule a free consultation. We’ll work with you to develop an action plan to meet your real estate goals this year.
The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial, legal, or tax advice. Consult the appropriate professionals for advice regarding your individual needs.
Sources:
1. Forbes -
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history/
2. Bankrate -
https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/will-mortgage-rates-go-up-in-december-2022/
3. Bankrate -
https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/housing-market-predictions-2023/
4. Realtor.com -
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/2023-the-year-of-the-homebuyer-our-bold-predictions-on-home-prices-mortgage-rates-and-more/
5. Mortgage Bankers Association -
https://www.mba.org/docs/default-source/research-and-forecasts/forecasts/mortgage-finance-forecast-dec-2022.pdf?sfvrsn=b584bf7_1
6. Fannie Mae -
https://www.fanniemae.com/newsroom/fannie-mae-news/economy-still-expected-enter-and-exit-modest-recession-2023
7. Fannie Mae -
https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45801/display
8. National Association of Realtors -
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nars-lawrence-yun-predicts-us-home-prices-wont-experience-major-decline-could-possibly-rise-slightly
9. Realtor.com -
https://www.realtor.com/research/2023-national-housing-forecast/
10. The New York Times -
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/04/realestate/housing-market-interest-rates.html
11. CNBC -
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/28/how-much-higher-rent-will-go-in-2023-according-to-experts.html
12. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas -
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2022/0816
Congratulations on your decision to purchase a new home! 🏠 There’s something magical about stepping across the threshold into a space that’s truly yours. The scent of fresh paint, the echo of footsteps on hardwood floors, and the promise of countless memories waiting to be made—it’s a feeling like no other. And what better way to celebrate this milestone than with a Free housewarming party?
That's correct, when you work with a Maryland Real Estate Professionals team member and one of our preferred lenders, we will provide you with the housewarming gift of a housewarming party!
A housewarming party isn’t just about showing off your stylish decor (though that’s definitely part of it!). It’s a chance to open your doors wide and invite friends, family, and neighbors to share in your joy. Here in Central Maryland, we know how to throw a memorable gathering—one that combines warmth, hospitality, and a dash of local flair.
After we help you purchase your home, you choose a date that suits your schedule and gives you enough time to settle into your new abode. Maybe you’ve hung up your favorite artwork, arranged the furniture just so, and found the perfect spot for your morning coffee. Now, let’s set the scene for your housewarming party. Whether you have a cozy townhouse in Annapolis, a chic loft in Baltimore, or a sprawling estate in the Frederick County countryside, your home will be the star of the show.
If you provide the Maryland Real Estate Professional team member your guest list, we will send out digital invitations to your guests. HAKUNA MATATA - We want to keep it hassle-free by using platforms that allow you to save invitations as images on your phone. A quick text message with all the details will have your friends marking their calendars. Remember to choose a range of time (say, 3-6pm) rather than a strict starting time. An open-house style party lets guests come and go as they please, without worrying about being late.
Delicious Bites and Sips
Now, let’s talk about the heart of any gathering—the food! Maryland Real Estate Professionals and our preferred lender will provide you with a housewarming gift, so that you will be able to purchase food for the party! For a housewarming party, opt for dishes that are easy to prepare ahead of time. Think bite-sized nibbles, colorful charcuterie boards, and refreshing drinks. Here are some ideas:
As guests arrive, greet them with a warm smile and perhaps a small token of appreciation. Here are some thoughtful housewarming gifts ideas:
Our friends over at DC Laser can help you come up with some amazing housewarming gifts! Just go to www.dclsr.com
Central Maryland Vibes
Maryland Real Estate Professionals has Central Maryand Covered! We know that Central Maryland is a place of contrasts—where historic meets modern, and cityscapes blend with natural beauty. Take inspiration from the region as you decorate your home. Incorporate nautical elements from Annapolis, embrace the industrial chic of Baltimore, or infuse your space with the tranquility of the Chesapeake Bay of the vast countryside of Caroll, Frederick and Washington Counties. Central Maryland is a beautiful place to work, live and play!
As the sun sets and the laughter echoes through your rooms, remember that this housewarming party is more than just an event—it’s the beginning of a chapter. A chapter filled with shared meals, cozy movie nights, and impromptu gatherings on the patio. So raise your glass, toast to new beginnings, pass out those housewarming gifts and welcome everyone to your Central Maryland haven.
Whether you’re hosting or attending, a housewarming party is a beautiful way to celebrate the journey of finding and creating a home. Cheers to you and your fellow Marylanders! 🥂🏡 Remember when you work with Maryland Real Estate Professionals, you are working with true professionals, who will look out for your best interest when you are buying your dream home! And don't forget that if you are looking for amazing ideas for housewarming gifts, you want to reach out to DC Laser. They are creative and have wonderful housewarming gifts!